What usually happens
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 16.0 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 2.2 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 6.4 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 7.8 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 10.0 pips in 60 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD down a median of 5.9 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD up a median of 2881.2 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD down a median of 1362.8 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD up a median of 2265.0 pips in 15 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD down a median of 1605.6 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD up a median of 2467.5 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD down a median of 3228.8 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD up a median of 87.0 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD down a median of 86.6 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD up a median of 62.5 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD down a median of 52.6 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD up a median of 110.4 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD down a median of 95.5 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD up a median of 6.6 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD down a median of 17.6 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD up a median of 5.7 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD down a median of 5.5 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD down a median of 1.6 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD down a median of 17.6 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 9.1 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD down a median of 8.0 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 7.0 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD down a median of 7.5 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 6.0 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD down a median of 11.4 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 up a median of 42.0 pips in 5 minutes (8 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 down a median of 11.0 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 up a median of 35.2 pips in 15 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 up a median of 9.8 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 up a median of 31.2 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 down a median of 74.8 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 8.8 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 2.0 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 4.2 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 5.5 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 0.6 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD down a median of 10.4 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD up a median of 435.0 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD down a median of 460.0 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD up a median of 410.5 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD up a median of 166.0 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD up a median of 39.0 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD down a median of 1300.5 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL down a median of 2.5 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL up a median of 10.0 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL down a median of 3.5 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL up a median of 17.0 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL down a median of 9.5 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL up a median of 35.0 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 82.5 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 23.5 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 68.0 pips in 15 minutes (8 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 33.0 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 67.8 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 28.5 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US500 up a median of 11.8 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US500 down a median of 2.5 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US500 up a median of 11.3 pips in 15 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US500 up a median of 0.7 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US500 up a median of 9.8 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US500 down a median of 11.0 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 0.6 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 0.3 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 8.2 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD down a median of 9.2 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 18.8 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 3.7 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF down a median of 1.6 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 25.8 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF down a median of 2.0 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 18.9 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF down a median of 2.9 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 26.0 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY up a median of 0.2 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY up a median of 11.8 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY down a median of 10.6 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY up a median of 14.1 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY down a median of 13.9 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY up a median of 27.1 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL down a median of 1.5 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL up a median of 9.0 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL down a median of 4.0 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL up a median of 16.0 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL down a median of 10.0 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL up a median of 42.0 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 13.4 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD down a median of 6.6 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 9.9 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 4.1 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD down a median of 0.8 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 10.8 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD up a median of 52.3 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD down a median of 46.3 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD up a median of 40.1 pips in 15 minutes (7 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD down a median of 27.5 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD up a median of 91.7 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD down a median of 15.2 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD up a median of 98.2 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD down a median of 134.0 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD up a median of 22.8 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD down a median of 105.5 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD down a median of 140.5 pips in 60 minutes (7 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD down a median of 150.5 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD up a median of 0.0 pips in 5 minutes (0 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD up a median of 0.8 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD down a median of 0.4 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD up a median of 1.2 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 7 releases).
- In the last 8 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD up a median of 0.4 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 8 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD up a median of 1.8 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD up a median of 94.2 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD down a median of 23.6 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD up a median of 29.5 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD down a median of 20.2 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD up a median of 52.2 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 7 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD down a median of 68.6 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 7 releases).
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous | SOLUSD15 min move | ETHUSD15 min move | BTCUSD15 min move | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 4.2 | — | 4.1 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 4.1 | — | 4.1 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | +0 (-0.3σ) | -2965 | -804.5 | -16660 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 4.1 | — | 4.2 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | +0 (-0.3σ) | -130 | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | +0 (-0.3σ) | -790 | -34.5 | +360 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 4.2 | — | 4.3 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.2 | -0.2 (-1.3σ) | -177.5 | -71 | -2260 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 4.3 | — | 4.3 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| May 8, 2026 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | +0 (-0.3σ) | +15 | -13.8 | -870 |
| May 8, 2026 | 4.3 | — | 4.3 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 3, 2026 | 4.3 | — | 4.4 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 3, 2026 | 8 | 7.7 | 7.9 | +0.3 (+1.2σ) | -407 | -81.5 | -2550 |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 4.4 | — | 4.3 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 8 | -0.2 (-1.3σ) | +303 | +28.5 | +265 |
| Feb 11, 2026 | 4.3 | — | 4.4 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Feb 11, 2026 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | +0.1 (+0.2σ) | +410.5 | +62.5 | +2265 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 4.4 | — | 4.6 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.7 | +0 (-0.3σ) | +87 | -28.8 | +290 |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 4.6 | — | 4.4 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | +0.3 (+1.2σ) | -1431 | -321.8 | -4190 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 4.4 | — | 4.3 | — | -687.5 | -200 | -2870 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | +0.2 (+0.7σ) | -327.5 | -20 | +240 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 4.3 | — | 4.2 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | +0.2 (+0.7σ) | -320 | -153.6 | +676.2 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 4.2 | — | 4.1 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.7 | +0.4 (+1.7σ) | +575 | +259 | +4185 |
| Jul 3, 2025 | 4.1 | — | 4.2 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jul 3, 2025 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | -0.2 (-1.3σ) | -1515.5 | -216.8 | -7084.5 |
| Jun 6, 2025 | 4.2 | — | 4.2 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jun 6, 2025 | 7.8 | 8 | 7.8 | -0.2 (-1.3σ) | +166 | -52.6 | -1605.6 |
| May 2, 2025 | 4.2 | — | 4.2 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| May 2, 2025 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.2 | -0.2 (-1.3σ) | +325.5 | +13.8 | +1815.9 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 4.2 | — | 4.1 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | +0 (-0.3σ) | +669 | +30.8 | +2735.9 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 4.1 | — | 4 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 8 | 7.6 | 7.5 | +0.4 (+1.7σ) | +2485 | +204.6 | +7002.1 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 4 | — | 4.1 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 4 | 4 | 4.1 | +0 (-0.3σ) | +2095.5 | +209.9 | +6434.5 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 4.1 | — | 4.2 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
Moves are measured on our own 1-minute price feed (market.candles_1m), not a vendor's or a forecast.
This page describes what already happened. It is not a prediction of the next release and not trading advice.