What usually happens
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 1.6 pips in 5 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 11.8 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 2.2 pips in 15 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 6.5 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 6.6 pips in 60 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 18.2 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD up a median of 650.0 pips in 5 minutes (11 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD down a median of 235.0 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD up a median of 265.0 pips in 15 minutes (11 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD up a median of 1054.3 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD up a median of 237.3 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD down a median of 358.4 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD up a median of 34.0 pips in 5 minutes (12 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD up a median of 1.9 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD up a median of 31.5 pips in 15 minutes (12 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD up a median of 77.2 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD up a median of 7.5 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD up a median of 73.2 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD down a median of 0.2 pips in 5 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD up a median of 10.0 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD up a median of 4.6 pips in 15 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD up a median of 3.3 pips in 15 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD up a median of 9.6 pips in 60 minutes (14 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD up a median of 12.0 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 2.4 pips in 5 minutes (15 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 11.6 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 7.3 pips in 15 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 7.6 pips in 15 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 10.8 pips in 60 minutes (14 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 8.6 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 up a median of 5.4 pips in 5 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 up a median of 6.2 pips in 5 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 down a median of 5.6 pips in 15 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 up a median of 1.8 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 down a median of 5.6 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 up a median of 14.9 pips in 60 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 2.5 pips in 5 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 9.3 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 4.1 pips in 15 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 2.6 pips in 15 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 4.4 pips in 60 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 14.2 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD up a median of 30.0 pips in 5 minutes (11 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD up a median of 10.0 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD up a median of 20.0 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD up a median of 132.5 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD down a median of 35.0 pips in 60 minutes (11 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD down a median of 167.5 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL down a median of 1.0 pips in 5 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL down a median of 2.5 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL up a median of 0.5 pips in 15 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL down a median of 6.0 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL down a median of 7.0 pips in 60 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL down a median of 11.0 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 4.0 pips in 5 minutes (11 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 10.0 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 7.0 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 1.5 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 3.5 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 12.5 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 5 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US500 up a median of 0.4 pips in 5 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US500 up a median of 0.3 pips in 5 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US500 down a median of 1.2 pips in 15 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US500 down a median of 0.5 pips in 15 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US500 down a median of 1.7 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US500 up a median of 4.0 pips in 60 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 2.2 pips in 5 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 0.9 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 3.0 pips in 15 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD down a median of 0.2 pips in 15 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD down a median of 0.6 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD down a median of 7.3 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 3.6 pips in 5 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF down a median of 3.2 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 2.3 pips in 15 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF down a median of 0.6 pips in 15 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF down a median of 1.5 pips in 60 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 1.9 pips in 60 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY up a median of 2.5 pips in 5 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY down a median of 3.1 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY down a median of 0.4 pips in 15 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY up a median of 0.4 pips in 15 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY down a median of 4.8 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY down a median of 1.8 pips in 60 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL up a median of 2.5 pips in 5 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL down a median of 3.0 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL up a median of 6.0 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL down a median of 6.5 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL down a median of 5.5 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL down a median of 8.5 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 1.7 pips in 5 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 17.6 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 1.0 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 1.6 pips in 15 minutes (2 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD down a median of 6.0 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 26.3 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD up a median of 2.7 pips in 5 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD up a median of 59.8 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD down a median of 8.0 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD up a median of 46.7 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 4 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD up a median of 0.3 pips in 60 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 4 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD up a median of 163.9 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 4 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD down a median of 14.0 pips in 5 minutes (10 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD up a median of 133.8 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD down a median of 4.0 pips in 15 minutes (11 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD down a median of 64.8 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD up a median of 48.0 pips in 60 minutes (11 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD down a median of 102.5 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD down a median of 0.4 pips in 5 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD down a median of 0.3 pips in 5 minutes (4 of 5 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD down a median of 0.6 pips in 15 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD up a median of 0.8 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD down a median of 1.0 pips in 60 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD up a median of 0.8 pips in 60 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 6 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XPDUSD up a median of 493.8 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 6 releases).
- In the last 6 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XPDUSD up a median of 455.9 pips in 15 minutes (4 of 6 releases).
- In the last 6 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XPDUSD up a median of 121.5 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 6 releases).
- In the last 6 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XPTUSD up a median of 746.7 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 6 releases).
- In the last 6 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XPTUSD up a median of 222.9 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 6 releases).
- In the last 6 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XPTUSD up a median of 406.2 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 6 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD up a median of 12.0 pips in 5 minutes (12 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD up a median of 1.5 pips in 5 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD up a median of 24.1 pips in 15 minutes (11 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD up a median of 80.0 pips in 15 minutes (3 of 5 releases).
- In the last 19 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD down a median of 10.6 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 19 releases).
- In the last 5 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD up a median of 55.0 pips in 60 minutes (4 of 5 releases).
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous | ETHUSD15 min move | BTCUSD15 min move | US3015 min move | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | -3.7 | — | 1.4 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 1.2 | 0.8 | -0.6 | +0.4 (+0.3σ) | -2 | -50 | -55 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 1.4 | 0.6 | -0.3 | +0.8 (+1.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 6 | 3.5 | 5 | +2.5 (+1.3σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 1.4 | — | -0.6 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.5 (-0.9σ) | -35.5 | -1265 | -3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 5 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -1.5 (-1.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.4 (-0.9σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -0.6 | — | 0.6 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 6.9 | +1.8 (+0.9σ) | -127.2 | -3050 | -32 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -0.8 (-1.6σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | +0.1 (-0.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 0.6 | — | 0.9 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 4.9 | +3 (+1.6σ) | +92.5 | +2250 | +35 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.5 | +1 (+1.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | +0.5 (+0.6σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 0.9 | — | 0.7 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| May 14, 2026 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 4 | +1.5 (+0.7σ) | +59 | +2590 | +24.5 |
| May 14, 2026 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | +0.2 (+0.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| May 14, 2026 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.8 (-1.6σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| May 14, 2026 | 0.7 | — | 1.9 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 4 | 3 | 3.7 | +1 (+0.4σ) | -197.5 | -5400 | -66 |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | +1.5 (+2.3σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | +0.3 (+0.2σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 1.9 | — | 0.7 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 3.2 | +1 (+0.4σ) | +73.5 | +1210 | +47.5 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0 | +0.2 (+0.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -0.2 | +0.3 (+0.2σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 0.7 | — | -0.2 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Mar 6, 2026 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0 | +0.1 (-0.1σ) | +28.5 | +265 | -220 |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | -0.1 (-0.4σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | +1.1 (+0.5σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Mar 6, 2026 | -0.2 | — | -0.1 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.4 (-0.8σ) | +101 | +2870 | +17 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.2 (-0.6σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | -0.3 (-0.4σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Feb 10, 2026 | -0.1 | — | 0.4 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | +0.2 (+0.1σ) | -38.5 | -1235 | -47 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | -0.1 (-0.2σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | +0.3 (+0.3σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
Moves are measured on our own 1-minute price feed (market.candles_1m), not a vendor's or a forecast.
This page describes what already happened. It is not a prediction of the next release and not trading advice.