What usually happens
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD down a median of 0.6 pips in 5 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 2.3 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD down a median of 0.8 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD up a median of 4.5 pips in 15 minutes (8 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD down a median of 3.2 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved AUDUSD down a median of 2.0 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD down a median of 1652.9 pips in 5 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD up a median of 151.6 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD down a median of 1273.8 pips in 15 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD down a median of 460.0 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD down a median of 1540.5 pips in 60 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved BTCUSD up a median of 2004.8 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD down a median of 57.8 pips in 5 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD up a median of 33.2 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD down a median of 57.6 pips in 15 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD down a median of 2.6 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD down a median of 65.8 pips in 60 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved ETHUSD up a median of 218.6 pips in 60 minutes (7 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD down a median of 2.4 pips in 5 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD up a median of 2.9 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD up a median of 1.3 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD up a median of 1.1 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD down a median of 5.0 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved EURUSD down a median of 4.0 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 0.5 pips in 5 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 0.0 pips in 5 minutes (1 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 2.2 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 1.8 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD down a median of 5.0 pips in 60 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved GBPUSD up a median of 6.6 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 down a median of 21.4 pips in 5 minutes (15 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 up a median of 25.2 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 down a median of 23.8 pips in 15 minutes (14 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 up a median of 15.4 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 down a median of 24.2 pips in 60 minutes (14 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NAS100 up a median of 7.1 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD down a median of 0.2 pips in 5 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 3.0 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD down a median of 0.4 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 5.3 pips in 15 minutes (8 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD down a median of 0.2 pips in 60 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved NZDUSD up a median of 0.7 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD down a median of 420.0 pips in 5 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD up a median of 114.8 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD down a median of 715.2 pips in 15 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD up a median of 171.5 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD down a median of 692.0 pips in 60 minutes (14 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved SOLUSD up a median of 1103.0 pips in 60 minutes (7 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL down a median of 0.5 pips in 5 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL up a median of 4.0 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL up a median of 3.0 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL up a median of 8.0 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL down a median of 2.5 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved UKOIL up a median of 5.0 pips in 60 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US30 down a median of 16.0 pips in 5 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 23.5 pips in 5 minutes (9 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US30 down a median of 15.8 pips in 15 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 18.5 pips in 15 minutes (7 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US30 down a median of 50.0 pips in 60 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US30 up a median of 75.0 pips in 60 minutes (8 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US500 down a median of 4.4 pips in 5 minutes (14 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US500 up a median of 4.4 pips in 5 minutes (8 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US500 down a median of 4.6 pips in 15 minutes (14 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US500 up a median of 1.8 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved US500 down a median of 7.0 pips in 60 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved US500 up a median of 5.7 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 6.4 pips in 5 minutes (17 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 0.4 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 7.6 pips in 15 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 1.0 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 7.4 pips in 60 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCAD up a median of 0.3 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 7.8 pips in 5 minutes (15 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 0.8 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 6.3 pips in 15 minutes (14 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 0.2 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 5.0 pips in 60 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDCHF up a median of 4.5 pips in 60 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY up a median of 14.9 pips in 5 minutes (14 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY down a median of 1.7 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY up a median of 13.2 pips in 15 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY down a median of 7.4 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY up a median of 11.6 pips in 60 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USDJPY down a median of 3.8 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL up a median of 0.0 pips in 5 minutes (2 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL up a median of 5.0 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL up a median of 3.0 pips in 15 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL up a median of 11.0 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL down a median of 1.5 pips in 60 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved USOIL up a median of 6.0 pips in 60 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 0.4 pips in 5 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 3.5 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 3.6 pips in 15 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD up a median of 1.6 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD down a median of 4.1 pips in 60 minutes (11 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAGUSD down a median of 19.0 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD down a median of 13.3 pips in 5 minutes (12 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD up a median of 2.5 pips in 5 minutes (5 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD up a median of 1.0 pips in 15 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD down a median of 8.7 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD up a median of 11.1 pips in 60 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 9 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XAUUSD down a median of 47.3 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 9 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD down a median of 3.2 pips in 5 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD up a median of 54.0 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD up a median of 23.2 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD up a median of 20.5 pips in 15 minutes (7 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD up a median of 15.0 pips in 60 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XCUUSD down a median of 45.2 pips in 60 minutes (7 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD up a median of 0.2 pips in 5 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD up a median of 0.2 pips in 5 minutes (7 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD down a median of 0.3 pips in 15 minutes (10 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD down a median of 0.6 pips in 15 minutes (6 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD down a median of 0.4 pips in 60 minutes (9 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XNGUSD up a median of 1.6 pips in 60 minutes (6 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD down a median of 35.0 pips in 5 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD up a median of 3.6 pips in 5 minutes (6 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD down a median of 58.4 pips in 15 minutes (13 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD up a median of 5.4 pips in 15 minutes (5 of 10 releases).
- In the last 18 releases, a higher-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD down a median of 95.4 pips in 60 minutes (15 of 18 releases).
- In the last 10 releases, a lower-than-forecast surprise moved XRPUSD up a median of 42.4 pips in 60 minutes (8 of 10 releases).
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous | ETHUSD15 min move | BTCUSD15 min move | US3015 min move | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | 3 | — | 3.5 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | +0 (+0.1σ) | -158 | -4430 | -113.5 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | +0.2 (+0.4σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 0.2 | 0 | -0.1 | +0.2 (+0.8σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 3.7 | 3 | 3.7 | +0.7 (+1.6σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | +0 (-0.4σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | +0.2 (+0.2σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 3.5 | — | 3.4 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.3 (-1.4σ) | -20.8 | -470 | -48 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 4.4 | +0.5 (+0.9σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.8 (-1.7σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.4 (-1.9σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | -0.2 (-0.4σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 4.6 | +2.7 (+3.2σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 3.4 | — | 3.6 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | +0 (+0.0σ) | +104.5 | +2570 | +75 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | +0.2 (+1.0σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.1 (+0.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.8 | +0 (+0.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | +0 (-0.4σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | +0 (-0.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 3.6 | — | 3.5 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| May 28, 2026 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0 (+0.1σ) | +51.5 | +1080 | +69 |
| May 28, 2026 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | +0.1 (+0.2σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| May 28, 2026 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | -0.2 (-1.0σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| May 28, 2026 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0 (-0.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| May 28, 2026 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 | +0 (+0.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| May 28, 2026 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | +0.2 (-0.3σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| May 28, 2026 | 3.5 | — | 3.4 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | +1.5 (+2.5σ) | -32 | -980 | -29.5 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | +0 (+0.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 3.5 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.5 (+1.2σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3 | +0.1 (-0.3σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | +0.5 (+2.2σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 2.9 | +2.2 (+2.6σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 3.4 | — | 3.2 | — | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | +0 (+0.1σ) | -1 | -470 | +7.5 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | +0 (-0.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | +0 (+0.1σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
| Apr 9, 2026 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.2 (+0.8σ) | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release | not yet measured this release |
Moves are measured on our own 1-minute price feed (market.candles_1m), not a vendor's or a forecast.
This page describes what already happened. It is not a prediction of the next release and not trading advice.